Stephen Cranney and Josh Coates
This is one of a series of posts discussing results from a recent survey of current and former Latter-day Saints conducted by the BH Roberts Foundation. The technical details are in the full methodology report here.
Polling data shows that a majority of Utahns support same-sex marriage (although, and we hope this goes without saying at this point, that does not mean that a majority of members do). Occasionally people grab onto these datum to suggest that a sea change is afoot on LGBTQ issues in the Church; some versions of this narrative imply that young people are less heteronormative, so that cohort replacement will eventually lead to the Church shifting. (Although, anecdotally, we see less of that argument now than, say, 10 years ago).
However, support for government recognitions of same-sex marriage is distinct from religious recognition of same-sex marriage. As noted in this article from the Deseret News, the number of people who attend non-heteronormative churches is quite small. While some may see LGBTQ issues as a dichotomy between allies and bigots, that neglects a lot of variation on the continuum of heteronormativity.
So as part of the 2023 Current and Former Latter-day Saint Survey we asked members what they think about religious solemnization of same-sex marriages. Ultimately, the Church being fully non-heternormative would entail same-sex marital sealings in temples. So we asked: “The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormon Church) should marry (seal) gay couples in their temples.”
Discussions about LGBTQ issues often have a certain “direction of history” feel to them, so we also wanted to ask about whether, independent about whether they believe the Church should perform same-sex sealings, whether they think the Church will eventually change and perform same-sex sealings. So we asked “How likely do you think it is that the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints will eventually marry (seal) gay couples in the temple?”
Results from both questions show that, across our different samples, large majorities of the Church 1) disagree with same-sex sealings, and 2) find it unlikely that the Church will ever perform same-sex sealings.
We were also interested in the relationship between the two variables: are people who believe that the Church will solemnize same-sex sealings disappointed conservatives? Or are they hopeful liberals? When we do a simple cross-tab with the combined, unweighted data, it appears to be the latter.
However, even among people who strongly agree with same-sex sealings, a little more half think that it is likely to some degree that it will eventually happen. Consequently, people who think there is some likelihood of the Church eventually performing same-sex sealings are in the single digits.
What about the youth? As noted above, people extrapolate the fact that younger people tend to be more liberal into a belief that the Church will necessarily shift. However, when we subsample only those respondents in their 20s in the combined dataset we find a similar pattern, with 60% of respondents strongly disagreeing with same-sex sealings, and only 13% agreeing to some extent, which probably means that people waiting for a wave of rainbow bannered youth to change the Church from within are going to be disappointed.
FWIW, probably nothing, this data lines up with my personal experience with the church outside the mormon corridor. IMO, we reached the high water mark of LGBT related change and support before COVID (both in the church and with society at large).
I do not support same-sex sealings for the simple fact that we have no revelation from the Lord on the matter.
I also do not support doctrinal constructions that claim to know what the Lord may do in the future since we also have no revelation from the Lord about what may or may not change as we head into a Millennium, Final Judgment, and Kingdoms of Glory. We have a long way to go, and we would do well to keep open minds and hearts to whatever the Lord reveals through His anointed prophets.
We know very little about how attraction, flirtation, and new romantic developments will function as time passes for both opposite- and same-sex relationships. It is foolish for people to think they know things that have yet to be revealed, no matter one’s proclivities.
John – I am curious to know what you would be ok with regarding if this change ever happened. An announcement over the pulpit at GC enough for you to believe it is Gods will or would you need a canonized document that says “thus sayeth the Lord”…? I personally would need the later OR an angel appearing to me with two flaming swords! :) Twice!
“What about the youth? As noted above, people extrapolate the fact that younger people tend to be more liberal into a belief that the Church will necessarily shift. However, when we subsample only those respondents in their 20s in the combined dataset we find a similar pattern, with 60% of respondents strongly disagreeing with same-sex sealings, and only 13% agreeing to some extent, which probably means that people waiting for a wave of rainbow bannered youth to change the Church from within are going to be disappointed.”
Curious if you have more intel on this. My take is that the progressive youth already left the building and let the door hit them on the way out (and therefore would not have been polled). The remaining youth (who are represented in the survey results) are simply the youth on board with the status quo. This would support your claim that a wave of change will not happen. Anyway your data may support or negate this?
Methodology question: in the technical description you say “The targeting for [ads for the Facebook survey]…focused on users showing interest in BYU, other Utah-centric educational institutions, their sports teams, and Utah in general.” Am I right that that’s true for both the subsample described as “Facebook (Mormon Corridor)” and the subsample “Facebook (Non-Mormon Corridor)”?
If so, it’s worth keeping in mind that the people in this sample are very likely to have strong ties to Utah/the Mormon Corridor even if they don’t currently live there. In many cases those ties aren’t even religious (being a member of the Church may make you interested in BYU, but probably not the Jazz). I imagine this sample is weighted towards the Utah Diaspora and maybe one generation after, and light on non-Utahn converts and their descendants. It’s at least plausible that those groups are quite different on the questions asked here.
Unless I’m missing something, this is a useful data set that tells us interesting things about a large and important segment of the Church, but not about the population of Church members in the United States as a whole.
REC911 – If it comes from the Prophet’s mouth, I would seek personal confirmation through the Holy Ghost. I imagine it would come as a unified statement by the First Presidency and Quorum of Twelve Apostles. At the end of the day, Jesus runs things, and I trust His will to be made clearly known, even if it is difficult for some to hear as has often been the case.
For reference: https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/approaching-mormon-doctrine
“With divine inspiration, the First Presidency (the prophet and his two counselors) and the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles (the second-highest governing body of the Church) counsel together to establish doctrine that is consistently proclaimed in official Church publications. This doctrine resides in the four “standard works” of scripture (the Holy Bible, the Book of Mormon, the Doctrine and Covenants and the Pearl of Great Price), official declarations and proclamations, and the Articles of Faith.”
Michael: That fits my anecdotal experience as well, although I’d probably place the peak a few years earlier.
Chadwick: Yes, I’m sure selection effects are huge here. People who have left the Church swing much more liberal on this (we asked this question of former members as well). Still, they have, in fact, left the Church, so if there’s out-selection on that characteristic then it would be hard for some kind of a wave to build up inside the Church.
RLD: Yes, that is why we did three different subsamples, to see if they would basically support each other and cover each other’s biases. Still, the fact is that, as you note, the 1st generation member from Liberia in Maine would probably not be picked up in this survey. FWIW, at this point it’s just not feasible to do a survey that is systematic enough to pick up that member (believe us, we tried, we calculated the numbers, got quotes from white-shoe survey firms, the whole bit). Riess was able to find a company that would do a panel survey, but her numbers are quite a bit smaller by dint of the fact that it is very difficult to find a panel large enough to get a large sample of Mormons, plus panels have their own subtle selection effects, so to answer your question: yes, it has all those limitations, but it’s the best that can be done at this point.
Interesting, thank you for posting.
My guess is that if the church’s stance changes it won’t be because of active members pushing for it but as a way to try to stop the bleed of youth and assist missionary work in western countries where othering LGBT people comes off as a huge negative. That said, I’m not holding my breath for that to actually happen (or work).
I recognize the difficulty (impossibility?) of getting a representative sample of Church members without the Church’s assistance, and I’m not criticizing the choices you made in putting together the data. I just think it’s important to be open about who is in the sample and thus what population you can use it to make inferences about. In this post that could have been as simple as “So as part of the 2023 Current and Former Latter-day Saint Survey, which sampled current and former members living in or with ties to the Mormon Corridor, we asked members…”
(In writing this it occurred to me that the selection is especially strong for former members. A descendent of non-Utahn converts who is active in the Church may develop an interest in BYU; one who has left the Church is extremely unlikely to have interests that would lead to them being targeted by your ads.)
It’s a common observation that members from Utah are different–it’s been made on this site recently. I suspect much of that difference is purely behavioral and the result of being in, or being used to, a very different social situation with regards to the Church. I suspect differences in the kinds of things you’re asking about are smaller than some people expect (or hope), though your data hint that they may be real. For example, I doubt there’s a wave of rainbow-bannered youth among those with no ties to Utah either. But only the Church’s statisticians know for sure, so best to be cautious in interpreting your results.
There may have been a similar thing going on in the 40’s to 70’s: People who strongly opposed our church’s practice of denying temple access and priesthood ordination to people of black African ancestry opted out, so church support for the policy/doctrine may have remained high. Those who strongly opposed the practice stopped affiliating. There was general relief at the change of policy/doctrine, but that doesn’t mean that members were actively demonstrating for a change.
Stephen Hardy: This is all speculative of course since we don’t have the data as far as I know, but I doubt we would have gotten these numbers among the rank and file for a similarly worded race version of this question back during the civil rights era. There probably would have been a core of “never going to happen,” but the might/probably will happen group (including President McKay and others) were probably not nearly as marginal, whereas I have a hard time thinking of a President if the Church that has ever been in the “probably going to happen” camp with same-sex sealings.
ReTx: I suspect that the bleed from the developing world (where it’s actually growing) would more than offset the potential marginal gains from the developed world if it went more Mainline Protestant on social issues (as the Pope recently discovered). I know I’m cynical Sid on this point, but I suspect that the Church is going to decline in the medium term in a lot of those countries no matter what it does.
RLD: That’s fair, and you’re right it’s probably especially operating in the ex-Mo sample. For example, I doubt a Marco Rubio would have even thought to click on the survey even if he did get it in his Facebook feed, even though he’s technically an ex-Mo. We’re probably specifically getting at more longer-term members who left, not the ones who were in for a few weeks, months, or years, then just became another entry in the missing members file.